| dc.description.abstract | The ongoing demand for maize is driven by its nutritional value, ability to meet the food re
quirements of a increasing world population, its impact on ensuring a stable food supply, and
the growing international investments in ethanol as a renewable fuel source. Nevertheless,
the invasion and extensive spread of the Spodoptera frugiperda pest cause substantial losses
in maize yields, resulting in a diminished standard of living and an economic downturn for
those involved in maize production. This study formulates the systems of differential equations
to simulate the dynamics of a model encompassing both Spodoptera frugiperda and maize
biomass. The model considers the presence of predators and the application of best farming
practices. The model demonstrates six equilibrium points, and they are locally asymptotically
stable provided that the essential conditions are satisfied. Global stability for models’ equi
libria are established by Lyapunov functions. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and Partial
Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) multivariate analysis were utilized to pinpoint the sen
sitive parameters that influence the pest. The predators attack rate and best farming practices
was the most sensitive parameter, when increases maize biomass increases while pest popu
lation significantly dencreases. Numerical simulations indicate that, during the initial phases,
combining natural enemies with best farming practices emerges as a successful intervention
by directly decreasing the pest population and fostering sustainable pest control. The optimal
control strategy which combines farming education campaign and predator selection awere
ness on eggs and larval reduced pest infestation in early stages. Thus, to control the pest, we
recommend that more efforts be directed to reduce eggs and larval populations and improving
farming methods through education campaign. | en_US |
